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Royce by Submission
I've been analyzing this fight for weeks and have come to the conclusion that the most likely outcome is Royce submitting Matt or Matt winning on decision.
Matt wants to keep the fight standing but if a world class grappler, such as Royce, wants the fight to go to the mat Hughes won't be able to prevent it and in doing so, that neutralizes Matt's stand-up advantages.
Once the fight is fought on the ground it becomes a battle of who is the better ground fighter. Matt may be the better all-around fighter but Royce is the better one-dimensional fighter. Edge to Royce on the ground.
If Matt tries to win this fight he'll have to initiate action and that's exactly what Royce needs to submit him.
Matt will win the fight as long as he doesn't try to win. If Matt fights not to lose, he'll win on the Judges cards and in doing so win the fight. As long as Matt keeps countering Royce's techniques he'll keep scoring points by being the busier fighter... I'm accounting for Matt's expected strikes - punches, elbows, head butts, etc. while both fighters clinch on the ground.
Royce won't be hurt by any of Matt's strikes while on the ground because his technique is too tight. He'll keep Matt close to the body and eliminate all the leverage that can cause serious damage so the strikes will be more for show and annoyance but none-the-less will score all the necessary points to win the fight with the Judges.
Now, all that said, everything I've read or heard Matt say tells me Matt is planning on taking the fight to Royce so the Wise Old Owls picks Royce by submission.
Wise Old Owl
I've been analyzing this fight for weeks and have come to the conclusion that the most likely outcome is Royce submitting Matt or Matt winning on decision.
Matt wants to keep the fight standing but if a world class grappler, such as Royce, wants the fight to go to the mat Hughes won't be able to prevent it and in doing so, that neutralizes Matt's stand-up advantages.
Once the fight is fought on the ground it becomes a battle of who is the better ground fighter. Matt may be the better all-around fighter but Royce is the better one-dimensional fighter. Edge to Royce on the ground.
If Matt tries to win this fight he'll have to initiate action and that's exactly what Royce needs to submit him.
Matt will win the fight as long as he doesn't try to win. If Matt fights not to lose, he'll win on the Judges cards and in doing so win the fight. As long as Matt keeps countering Royce's techniques he'll keep scoring points by being the busier fighter... I'm accounting for Matt's expected strikes - punches, elbows, head butts, etc. while both fighters clinch on the ground.
Royce won't be hurt by any of Matt's strikes while on the ground because his technique is too tight. He'll keep Matt close to the body and eliminate all the leverage that can cause serious damage so the strikes will be more for show and annoyance but none-the-less will score all the necessary points to win the fight with the Judges.
Now, all that said, everything I've read or heard Matt say tells me Matt is planning on taking the fight to Royce so the Wise Old Owls picks Royce by submission.
Wise Old Owl
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