Future of MMA?

[Mik_36]

I just read on the UG that the next UFC will be on Cable.

Now are coming all the predictions that MMA will be the next biggest thing to hit the U.S since Pro Football.

I don't know, what are your predictions. I could see it getting back to where it was previously (before it was banned) but not much bigger, but then again I'm no expert.

From what I've seen Americans just don't like grappling, they want to see haymakers etc.

I really enjoy grappling but I'm in the minority.

Also do you guys think that Pride's lack of weight classes other rules hurts the UFC, or makes no difference. I keep hearing people saying that someone is going to get killed at Pride, and that would kill the UFC in the U.S. Do you guys think either of those two things are true?

I would love to hear some opinions on this as to how big people think the UFC will get.

[judo guy]

Mik 36,

It will certainly reach a larger audience, but it will not reach the heights of popularity that peaked in the early UFC's.

People didn't watch the UFC to see technique. They watched because they wanted to see blood spilled. Well, this is why the majority of people watched. The people on this board are a little different.

The rules that will allow UFC to reach a larger market are the rules that will limit its appeal.

Its a Catch-22.

Quite honestly, the early intrigue of NHB/MMA is gone for me. What made it interesting for me was it attempted to answer those age old questions of "who would win between a boxer and a wrestler?" etc.

As MMA evolved into its own unique sport, where the set of skills needed to succeed were becoming homogenized, its appeal diminished for me.

For the UFC to succeed, it needs athletes with "star" quality. Take a look at the discussions here. When UFC or Pride roll around, people don't talk about the styles competing, they talk about the combatants.

I'm not sure any of the UFC athletes have "mass appeal". I think UFC is pinning its best hopes on Tito Ortiz in this regard.

Also, Americans don't appreciate ground grappling. Heck, I don't like to watch ground fighting for extended periods. Yet, for the sport to remain true to its roots, ground fighting has to be given equal consideration. This reduces the appeal of the sport dramatically.

Remember the early UFC's didn't have much ground fighting. Royce ended the matches pretty quickly. Look how the buy rates dropped when the guard became a popular position.

Another consideration is how do they win back its earlier fans? The newer form of MMA will pale in comparison to what they witnessed before. The competitors are much better now, but the action and more importantly "dangerous" aspects of MMA are gone. The earlier UFC's were more "chaotic" and had elements of "brutality" that you will never see again.

So, in conclusion, I think the UFC faces some problems that are difficult to overcome if it is ever going to be more than a "cult" sport. It will be more successful than it has been for the last several years, which is a good thing. But I think its window of opportunity for mass appeal has passed it by.

[Mik_36]

Well said Judo Guy,

I don't think MMA will ever get as popular as MMA is in Japan for instance. I think Japan draws like 40,000 for some events today. I don't think it will ever get to that, not by a long way.

I heard that Cali is saying it will never sanction the sport unless they use boxing type gloves (anybody hear that also?). That would be a total joke in my opinion.

I'll probably get flamed for this but deep down I don't want it to become a huge sport. Yes, very selfish of me, because no doubt the fighters deserve a lot more money, but that would just water down the sport to such an extent that it would be a shadow of what it is even today (with New Jersey rules).

Let's use attendence as a measuring stick for popularity O.K., today Zuffa is apparently going to draw 12,000 (I'm assuming that is true) for the next UFC.

I say with the Cable ban lifted, the popularity (in attendance terms) could get up to like 18,000-20,000, in time.

I'm not saying attendance is the only gauge for how popular a sport is, I'm just using it as a measuring stick here.

So does anybody think UFC could ever get to the point where in could draw like 40,000 people in say a football or baseball stadium ect.

Or are you like me and think it will grow, but only in a limited way, say to 20,000.

[Szczepankiewicz]

It seems that in the US today, all we here about is violence and killing and such. Every single day you here about people getting shot and killed. With the huge anti-violence movement sweeping through the established social channels, UFC, Pride and the like are going to have a very difficult time keeping out of the bad spotlight.

WE all know the difference between killing somone and a good ol' fashioned but whoopin', but do you think that the 280 million people in the US actually understand?

So many times I've watched a match and people start complaining how "stupid" and "boring" everything is.... unless they are standing toe to toe.

I think that if the UFC wants to hit it bigtime for TV, then they have to glamorize and go WWF style to draw crowds of people who really don't understand the fights. They also had to water down the rules so that the chance of people getting hurt is smaller, to please the anti-violence groups.

Just my opinion, but I don't think it's going to get huge. And truly, I hope it doesn't. If it does, then it will lose it's purity of what the sport is all about. Look at football and the salary cap....

What do you think?

SZ

[Lacrymosa]

Hi Judo,

The future of MMA? Probably no different from that of boxing, pro wrestling, or lacrosse for that matter. The people who compete in these events are becoming less and less distinguishable from each other.

Ironically, Royce Gracie, the man who has dominated the early stages of this sport, looks noticably inadequate against a modern fighter like Sakuraba. It's very evident that to become successful in this game, it's necessary to adopt the formula that works under these rules.

Behind with the times,....the Gracies.....probably....but the more and more MMA "progresses", the less likely you'll see someone who bring a truly unique approach to the sport.

[Mik_36]

Your right about that, most fighter's have the same skills, Mauy Thai for striking, Wrestling for sprawling and takedowns and Submissions with most fighters.

Some exceptions of course but basically the skills are becoming the same.

Naturally this takes away from the Wrestling Vs. Boxing aspect etc, as most fighters take from both arts now a days.

But this was inevitable and makes for better fighter of course, but it does take away some the intrigue, no doubt.


But my main point with this thread was to get people's opinions on how big MMA is going to get.


We've got guys over on the UG who are convinced it is going to get absolutely huge, I'm more skepticle.

Even in Japan where MMA is very big, K-1 is bigger because most people like striking over grappling.

I think it will get bigger but I don't think more than say, 18-20 thousand for a UFC show, and even that will probably take at least 3-4-5 years to get to.

Obviously the cable thing will help, I just can't see the U.S fan taking to grappling (not to mention the anti-violence people, bad press, etc).

Again I'm sort of hoping it doesn't get to big because my personally opinion is that would ruin it in many ways, although the fighters do deserve to be paid a lot better, no doubt.

[judo guy]

Hi Lac,

It's been awhile since we last spoke. Hope everything is well with you and your family. I pretty much agree with your points.

Another thought occurred to me about the problem of marketing MMA. The sport should be marketed as an "extreme" sport to males, particularly young males. But how do you market a sport as extreme, when you are trying to tell the regulators that you are really a safe and mainstream sport? A conflicting message.

The more I think about it, the more I realize that the early success of UFC is gonna hurt it.

In retrospect, SEG should have realized that eventually state and local governments would try to regulate a sport that said "there are no rules" and accented the brutal elements of the sport. How could they not?

The problem with government action is the further you make the pendulum swing in one direction, the more they are gonna try to push it in the other direction.

The mainstream public wasn't ready for a "no rules" format. SEG would have been better off starting off with a limited rules format, and then over time, reduce the rules of the contest until they had a format that appealled to their desired target audience.

They should have taken a lesson from Hugh Hefner. If Hugh had originally published Playboy with centerfolds with full frontal nudity in the 50's, someone, somewhere would have figured out how to shut down Playboy. Heck, it was still controversial, but not so controversial as to cause drastic action. Hugh waited until the mainstream public could "tolerate" full frontal nudity before he published it. Part of the process was getting the public comfortable with publications allowing "semi nudity". Had Hugh tried to push the envelope in the 50's, I think Playboy would have been shut down and Hugh would be spending his later years in a retirement home somewhere, with a catheter stuck in him, instead of nailing hot little Playboy bunnies all day long. As an aside, Playboy is pushing the envelope again (for them anyway), as they have just recently bought their first hardcore porn channels.

So, while we all should be thankful to SEG for being the original promoter of NHB, I think they blew a golden opportunity to grow the sport over time. I think its a tough hole for the new management to get out of.

Having said all that, I got to admit I think that the UFC has made all the right moves. I can't imagine playing the cards they were dealt any better than they have. They are putting out a quality product, they peacefully coexist with regulators, they are developing "likeable" athletes, they are reaching out to cable again. All the steps needed to grow the sport expotentially have been taken.

Now we will see how big the market for MMA really is. I've always thought most of its audience was there for the spectacle more than the sport. Hopefully I'm wrong.