Where's Mike?

[Garland]

I haven't seen him post in a minute...I miss Brewer damnit!

[eXcessiveForce]

He said he would be away for about a month. And as always, no details.

[gregimotis]

Quick! Lets throw up two dozen anti-war threads so he'll have something to do when he gets back.

[traveller]

Yes, Mike will be out for a few weeks.
He has been checking in when he gets the chance, just not a lot of post.
I'll handle the anti-war threads though.

[traveller]

To clarify for all and not just the PM.
I'll be glad to handle arguing against the anti-war post, I will not be the one posting them.

[grappler-jordan]

One I'd really like to discuss (but I know no one will oblige me) is the list of threats we are going to have to deal with and possible strategies for them. I'm talking about Russia, Iran, North Korea, Venezuela, Somalia, China, and Southeast Asia (Indonesia and the Philippines - or groups operating there, anyway). And if anyone can find the text of GT2015 (Global Trends of 2015 - it's an intelligence report, unclassified, that predicts trends out to 2015, and is one of the major documents driving policy right now), I'd probably send you gifts.

Other than that, I'll talk to you all when I get back to the Manor.

I will try to find some time to do some research and oblidge you on that. Will be an interesting topic....

[traveller]

Mike Brewer said -- One I'd really like to discuss (but I know no one will oblige me) is the list of threats we are going to have to deal with and possible strategies for them. I'm talking about Russia, Iran, North Korea, Venezuela, Somalia, China, and Southeast Asia (Indonesia and the Philippines - or groups operating there, anyway). And if anyone can find the text of GT2015 (Global Trends of 2015 - it's an intelligence report, unclassified, that predicts trends out to 2015, and is one of the major documents driving policy right now), I'd probably send you gifts.

Gifts
What are we waiting for?
Some things to look for in that research Grappler-J
Let's talk North Korea first. Yes they have long range missiles. Yes they have a large military machine. Yes they like to demonstrate shows of force, and yes they have a lunatic leader with a lunatic heir.
They also continuously struggle with fuel shortages, food shortages, maintenance issues with their equipment and serious military training issues. I think the biggest threat with them is really the support they can provide to other countries who are trying to cause us damage.
I am not discounting them as a potential enemy in a war, I just don't think they will do it alone. Their infrastructure is to fragile to support any sustained reinforcement or sustainment of troops, fuel and food. I also really don't beleive their first strike capability is as formidable as many in the media and the government would have us beleive. The one strength they do have is their special operations, sappers, sleeper agents, and intelligence which are a serious threat in South Korea.
Southeast Asia has been scary for a while. Large militant groups in Indonesia make it a very real threat, not just from terrorism, but if they were to take power they could become a conventional threat to neighboring nations. The US does have a large FID program there and that keeps us in the loop and on the right side of the current regime, but politics change rapidly. If the militants become favorites of the people, the government will have to change its stance with the US and other western countries, or give up power.
Also keep in mind in this region that it was only 10 years ago that there was a resurgence in Cambodian violence with Pol Pot and his ilk. Thailand still watches Cambodia closely and doesn't like it very much when other nations increase relations with Cambodia. If Indonesia's terrorist (or any terror groups) elements were to start putting money into Cambodia, and the borders there once again became killing grounds, and over crowded refugee camps Thailand would have to act, and we would probably be involved. Our relationship with Thailand has been in place for some time and we owe them some mutual defense for housing US troops, and allowing us training grounds in their border for so long. Of course Thailand itself is a prime opportunity for terrorist to hit Western interest. The west has a large volume of business in Thailand, to include, banking, industry, hotels and tourism.
Well saying that, the west also have quite a bit of financial interest in Indonesia as well.
The Philipines is a hot bed for terrorism right now. As recently as June we had US security contractors working with US agents in that country to track down some of the more dangerous cells and leadership that had Al Qaeda connections, and connections with other anti-US groups with a good deal of success. I don't think you hear much about it right now, but I am certain they are still working to cutout key arteries of the terrorist network among the Islands.
It would be a tough place to fight these days. The population has grown considerably since WWII and we had trouble fighting there when the entire indigenous population was on our side. Throw in fears of civilian casualties, a potential divided civilian population, and you have some major issues. At least we still have political and financial sway there, and that is to our advantage.
Iran is looming large right now, but they have done this in the past and fallen into obscurity. They don't consider themselves Arab so, if a US presence was suddenly to disappear from the region, they may very well forget about the US and try to make up for their failures decades ago against the Arabs in Iraq. The biggest issue with them is their hidden presence in Lebanon. They have not kept it a secret that they do not want Lebanon to continue to be a diversified religious-political communtiy. Their goal is a single sect Muslim country and to do so they use Hizbollah to be their face in the country. They naturally talk a very good game aginst Isareal, but I think the leadership is far to smart for that. The only way I think they will get involved there is if they can convince Egypt to join a mutual attack. They may try something with just Syria on their side, but I don't think it would last long. Egypt is unlikely to support Iran though, so that is probably not going to happen either. It seems to me Egypt is much safer with Israel as their neighbor than with an Iran contolled Isreal as a neighbor, and I am sure this is not lost on the Egyptian leadership. I don't think Iran's intentions are lost on anybody in the region actually. They are willing to side with Iran right now because it suits their goals and intentions, but none of these countries are realy friends of Iran despite some religious connections. The real question is can we keep Israel from hitting Iran for supporting Hizbollah.
I'll skip the rest for now, but I think a look should be taken at India is well. There are very distinct factions in India with a very regional military structure that could easily be shattered. They are a nuclear country. They have large financial resources (at least the government does). They have a substantial population to draft soldiers from. They have been relatively quiet, but there has always been and I think still is the potential for civil strife if not war that could ease over the borders. From a Unified India standpoint there are still more places that India feels belongs to them, than those we have already seen them fight for. Their first strike capability was and I believe still is better than the countries I have noted.

[traveller]

GT2015

http://www.loyola.edu/dept/politics/intel/globaltrends2015.pdf#search=%22Global%20Trends%202015%20%22

[grappler-jordan]

So since it is all connected (oil = missiles = economy = political power = alliances = terrorism; it's all from the same toolbox), what's the next most important step? How do we get people to stop chasing the individual flare-ups on each individual battlefield and recognize that the world is already in the middle of another World War? And once they recognize it - then what?

Agreed it is all connected, and it even seems to go in that process. The three questions you ask are the vital steps that need to be addressed. To be honest I don't believe there are good answers to those questions right now.

What's the next most important step? A change of stance, we stand in a war against terror on so many fronts, in so many nations, when really like you said; It's the same war! Unfortunately we few every nation, each group, each cell as a different fight, we need to bring this together into a single picture for what it really is, a war that has been declared against every non-muslim and treat it accordingly.

How do we do that? This is where the real issue lies, with our current policy and administration, I don't think it is possible. I don't think it will happen until there is another major event like 9/11, which is horrible to have to say, but it is the truth. These groups have united in a war on non-muslims, they will do anything in their power even take their own lives to destroy our nation, culture and freedom. That is their single devoted purpose, we are not nearly as devoted or focused in opposition to the radicals. The current administrations calls it a "Global War on Terror" but they still look at it as a battle that can be fought with a frontline. There is not a frontline, the lines are everywhere, even within the U.S. we are already battling on every side, we just fail to acknowledge it.

Once they do acknowledge this then what? Once again, a difficult question to answer. Do we close our borders? Do we lock all the doors and post a guard? Isn't that what they want? To take away what makes America so great, to take away freedom, to force us to fear terror so much that we would pull back within our own borders and cower. So in opposition to that stance do we increase efforts? Do we step on toes we have been to scared to step on? Do we damage foreign relations to destroy what would potentially damage our freedom? Do we impose our policy and beliefs on others who are rightfully entitled to the same freedoms we enjoy? Do we increase the distaste and even hatred for the U.S. that has spread worldwide and fuel the flames of the radical-islamist, and eventually increase their influence? It's a lose, lose situation. One way or another major changes will be coming, it's just a matter of time and direction.

[grappler-jordan]

"When you appeal to force, there is one thing you must never do - lose." We need to take that into account, and do what it takes to win, no matter how unpalateable it may be.

A great Eisonhower quote and exactly what we need to take into account. The problem is, not only are we scared to take off the gloves. We are too scared we might step on someones toes on the way to the ring. IMO Israel has got it right, they put out a loud and clear message that interprets itself in every language "Screw with us and we will fight you with everything we have until the last man." If America were to put out that message would it change anything? Do you really thing terrorists would respond to fear? Do you think it would fuel the fire that is their propaganda? Even if it would work, what would it take for America to actually get to that point? I don't see it happening with our current administration, "Approval ratings are down." WHO CARES! I just don't see their focus of shifting from approval ratings to self-preservation (and that's what it is at this point) anytime soon.

Mike, What do you think it would take for America to change it's stance and take off the gloves? Do you see it happening in the next 10 years?

[Hardball]

Sun Tzu would be a great topic. "The Art of war" One of my favorites.

[grappler-jordan]

How would the terrorists respond? Thay'd die a lot more often.

Someday that will be a famous quote... LOL

[traveller]

Sorry for not getting back into this discussion. I am abroad at the moment and have not been able to log on.
Heathrow airport is a nightmare. There was tons of security,but it seemed inadequate when compared to how many people were in the airport.
I am hoping to get some good talking points from some meetings I will be at over the next week or so.
Until then...
We worry so much about what wil be in our own backyard, but forget what is already there.
--Cuba is set to become a serious threat once again. Fidels little brother was always the enforcer what becomes of Cuba when he gets his way.
--What stance do we take when Mexico starts reaping economic benefits from our enemies? It is clear the government there disregards our laws and values and only makes token attempts to curb illegal immigration. If big money comes into play, how long will they be passive in supporting border crossings?